Analysis of Regions that Trump or Clinton will carry
Specific states that Clinton might carry are Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin. Trump is projected to carry the day with the rest of the states. These projections are not cast in stone as they change from time to time as the election date draws near. The changes are determined by the various ideologies, scandals, policy analysis and responses to various issues that touch on the American people. Some of the issues that cause a shift in projections as to who could carry various states could be matters health. Clinton’s health issues slightly affected the perception the American public had on her, but she soon regained the states that she seemed to have lost after fully recuperating. The sexual allegations and claims against Trump made him lose few states whose voting is predominantly determined by the women voters. More women over the past few days have cropped up hence further denting his image and winning projections in a few states.
Presidential election 2016 essay
The performance of trump in all the debates has not been up to the expectation of most Republican supporters hence making him lose out on a few states. There are a few states that seem to be swing states. These states are Ohio, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida and Virginia. The issue about big-wigs among fellow Republicans not endorsing Trump has been an issue within Republican supporters and by extension Republican perceived states. Most electorates share in the values of Clinton than the values of Trump. It is also believed amongst the electorate that Clinton has a moderate temperament and good individual personality which are good to make a good president.
Race is a very big factor in the race. Quite a large number of Hispanics and blacks back Clinton compared to trump. Considering that Hispanics make up to 20% of the total votes in swing states, it is for this reason that Clinton has the upper hand in the same states. Education wise, Trump tends to have the backing of 44% of high school graduates which could be very key in swing states such as Nevada and Georgia which have very high numbers of such kinds of graduates.
In terms of the live debates, Clinton had a 4 % edge over trump which made her popular in the mentioned states. This percentage increased just about the second debate when the sexual allegations and lewd comments against Trump surfaced. The arrogance displayed by Tramp when probed on the issue of tax returns has made him be viewed as a tax evader in some of the states. This was detrimental, since America is a capitalist state and a presidential candidate who is perceived to declare false tax returns does not appeal much to the electorate in most states. The recent drive by Clinton to run aggressive advertisement campaigns in Texas, Indiana, Arizona, and Missouri seems to pay as such states are proving to be receptive to the Clinton campaign agenda. By Clinton attacking various past business decisions has dented the image of Trump in some of the states. This was the case when Tramp made a false tax declaration so as to avoid paying taxes. Trump’s view on immigrants has made him less popular in states that have a good population of immigrants. Trump is of the opinion that the border with Mexico ought to be enhanced to deter illegal immigration that originates from Mexico.
Analysis of 2016 presidential election
On the other hand, his hard stance views and opinions in terms of dealing with radical groups and terrorism have endeared him amongst hard-core conservative Americans and Republican supporters in general in a few states. Since 77 % of the electorate are women, Clinton is likely to win since most women are resentful to how Trump views women. He has been arrogant enough to describe how ugly a fellow Republican Presidential candidate is, so much so that, that she does not qualify to be commander in chief. The Rust Belt strategy seems to be working well for Trump in Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan (Sundquist, James L, 1983).
Clinton has shown excellent organizational and voter registration skills in the mentioned states putting her way ahead of Trump in most states. Trump supporters think that he can be trusted with leadership since they perceive that Clinton erred in using a private email server to relay sensitive information on matters national security. Trump supporters perceive him to be confident going by the show of force and energy with which he carries himself out. Since Trump is not a standard politician, his supporters in most states think of him as an anti-establishment candidate.
Hardcore Republicans in these states are of the view that Muslims ought to be blocked from entering the United States. His supporters tend to be confident that he will rescue the American economy going by business skills and acumen. Trump mostly relies on his own funds hence people perceive Clinton as the candidate who will favor the big businesses and corporate. Trump’s remarks which are anti-trade seem to be very popular in swing states such as Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Trump appeals his supporters who perceive him to be very real since he is also not scripted.
On the other hand, Clinton seemed to carry the day in the said states since Her supporters in those states believe that she understand economic issues that touch on equitable pay and child care. She is perceived to be more qualified and experience having been a senator, secretary of state and also a former first lady. She is also viewed in those states as one who will have a strong defense on Planned Parenthood and comprehensive healthcare for women (Telegraph Media Group Limited, 2016).
Trump vs Clinton chances
Across most Democrats, the economy has been stronger during their tenure and she also tends to be appealing to a majority who would benefit from the New College compact since such a program would ensure no borrowing is done to fund tuition in public colleges and the many millions who are in debt would qualify for refinancing. She has all along strived to ensure that most children get access to health care coverage. In Ohio, Clinton has come up with 36 field officers who are ten more than those of Trump. Clinton has also increased bookings in terms of broadcast time in most TV stations in Ohio and Florida.
College graduates and the 20 % black population in Virginia gives Clinton an upper hand. In Pennsylvania, Moderates who reside in the suburbs of Philadelphia least support Trump. In New Hampshire, Republicans tend to be libertarian whereas, in Iowa, they tend to be conservative. Clinton has also upped the number of field officers in New Hampshire so as to up her numbers and catch up with Trump. Trump is leading in Iowa since it is largely made up of whites. Clinton’s lead in Nevada is attributed to the presence of Latinos who make up 19 % of the total population (Domenico Montanaro, 2016).
Traditionally, Latinos have all along been associated with Democrats ideologies. In Michigan, Clinton has around 23 field officers whereas Trump is not known to have any hence Clinton seems to carry the day in this state. In Ohio, the percentage of graduates is the lowest among the 11 swing states-40 %- which gives an upper hand to the surging Republican candidate of the Democratic candidate. On the other hand, to counter this, Clinton has upped the spending in terms of television advertisements (Niall Stanage, 2016). In Florida, Clinton has put a lot of advertising monies due to the expensive nature of competition that normally characterizes Florida and also due to the fact that a total of 29 electoral votes are up for grabs in this crucial state.
Analysis of the Potential Winner
In my opinion, Clinton would win. The biggest reasons for this are her vast experience that she has acquired through the many high-level positions in the country for quite a long duration. She has been a senator, a secretary of state and a first lady. She is also credited for her relentless fight for women rights, equitable pay, children’s rights and welfare and family rights. According to most pollsters, the projection is that Clinton will garner an approximate of 304 electoral votes whereas Trump will garner 179 votes. Winning a majority of the electoral vote count would mean that the country would be more cohesive since the individual who will be elected will enjoy a majority support.
Higher numbers of electoral vote count ensure that minority interests are well taken care of. National political stability is ensured since the winner is elected by a majority vote count. On the other hand, policies and agendas of the Clinton administration would be easily implemented due to the majority in numbers. Going by the numbers, there would be a clear winner.
A win for Clinton would ensure that family leave is guaranteed as well as the rights of gays. The income levels of the middle-class Americans would be improved going by the kind of plans that she has for such a group. The electorate is also looking forward with her continuity in terms of legislation and policies from where Obama has left in terms of gun controls and regulations.
Domenico Montanaro (2016). NPR Battleground Map: Hillary Clinton Is Winning-And It’s Not Close. Retrieved from http://www.npr.org/2016/10/18/498406765/npr-battleground-map-hillary-clinton-is-winning-and-its-not-close
Niall Stanage (2016).; Will Trump or Clinton Win? The 11 States Deciding the RaceRetrieved from http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/294716-will-trump-or-clinton-win-the-11-states-deciding-the-race